How to stop overthinking decisions: psychologist Adam Grant's 'door number three' test
Stuck between two choices? Adam Grant says overthinking is often underthinking. His three checks for when to quit, and the question that helps.
If you keep going round in circles over a decision, organisational psychologist Adam Grant has a surprising diagnosis: “a lot of overthinking is actually underthinking.” On the Mel Robbins Podcast this week, the Wharton professor explained that people get stuck replaying the same two options, and the fix is to go looking for a third.
The short version
- Overthinking often means chewing on only two options. Ask: what’s behind door number three?
- Staying or quitting isn’t the only choice in a job. You can often reshape the job itself.
- Decide in advance what would tell you a path isn’t working, and check on a fixed date.
- Keep a “challenge network”: people who will tell you honestly when you’ve stalled.
- Stuck? Ask what advice you’d give a friend in your place. It’s usually your answer.
- Big changes take time to feel good. A new job can take about a year to settle into.
What Adam Grant says about being stuck
Mel Robbins opened the segment with a line from Grant’s book Hidden Potential: when people can’t see a path, they stop dreaming of the destination. Grant said many people quietly give up on a goal once they decide it isn’t practical.
The opposite trap is what researchers call escalation of commitment: doubling down on a losing course because you’ve already put years into it. “It’s much better to recognize quickly that you wasted the last two years than to waste the next 20,” Grant said.
He admitted you never know for sure when to change direction, but offered three checks. First, set conditions in advance, like a six-monthly “career checkup” where you’ve already decided what would mean it’s time to go. Second, lean on a challenge network, a friend, mentor or partner who can spot a plateau before you do. Third, use what psychologists call Solomon’s paradox: we reason more wisely about other people’s problems than our own, so imagine you’re advising someone else.
Why overthinking is often underthinking
Grant pointed to management researcher Paul Nutt’s study of hundreds of organisational decisions, about half of which failed. The clearest warning sign, he said, was that the decision-makers had only weighed two options. Grant was careful to add that he can’t say whether a third option causes better decisions, or whether careful people simply tend to look wider.
For careers, he suggested “job crafting”, an idea from researchers Amy Wrzesniewski and Jane Dutton: changing your tasks and who you work with, rather than only choosing between staying and leaving. He also cited a large Australian study that found very unhappy people who quit were often less happy afterwards for a while, a “honeymoon hangover”. He was clear that leaving is still right if a job is meaningless or a boss is abusive.
Our take
The Solomon’s paradox point is the best supported here. Psychologists Igor Grossmann and Ethan Kross found in a 2014 study of 693 people that participants reasoned more wisely about a friend’s problem than their own, and that thinking about their own problem from a distance, even in the third person, closed most of that gap. The “two options” warning is useful but, as Grant himself said, it shows a pattern, not proof.
In Pakistan, decisions are rarely ours alone. A career switch involves parents, rishta prospects and a family budget, and “door number three” might be a part-time course, a freelance trial on the side or a transfer within the same company before a full jump. Grant’s advice suits people with some room to experiment; if you’re the only earner, the pre-set checkpoint matters even more, so a hard decision is made calmly rather than after a bad week.
Try this today
- Write down the decision you keep circling, then force yourself to list a third and fourth option.
- Pick a date three or six months away and write what would tell you to change course.
- Describe your problem to yourself in the third person (“Ali is unsure whether…”) and write the advice you’d give him.
- Name one person who will be honest with you, and ask them this week.
This is general information, not medical or career advice. If overthinking comes with constant worry, poor sleep or low mood, talk to a doctor or a qualified psychologist.
Other parts of the episode
- 15:01 How Grant says people unlock hidden potential
- 27:40 Building confidence before you feel ready
- 30:15 The right way to ask for feedback
- 35:40 Making friends when you’re lonely
- 58:32 Three career skills to learn now
- 1:01:25 What to do when you’re overwhelmed
- 1:11:02 How women can negotiate more effectively
Sources
This story was researched and drafted with AI assistance, then checked and edited by our editor before publishing.
