Can Kimi Antonelli win the F1 title in Austin? What he needs and race time in Pakistan

Kimi Antonelli can be crowned Formula 1 world champion on Sunday in Austin, but only if three things happen: he wins the US Grand Prix, Mercedes teammate George Russell finishes ninth or lower, and Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton finishes fifth or lower. The 20-year-old Italian put himself in position by taking pole on Saturday, just ahead of Max Verstappen.

The race starts at 3pm local time, which is 1am on Monday, 26 October, in Pakistan.

What Antonelli needs to win the title in Austin

Antonelli arrives with 340 points. Russell has 238 and Hamilton 229, with Verstappen on 221, according to Grande Premio. After Austin there are five races left, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, worth up to 125 points.

A win takes Antonelli to 365. If Russell scores no more than two points and Hamilton no more than 10, neither can catch him even by winning every remaining race. The AP’s version of the maths matches: win, Russell outside the top eight, Hamilton outside the top four.

If any one of those fails, the title fight moves to Mexico on 1 November.

The Austin grid

Antonelli’s lap of 1:34.035 beat Verstappen by 0.179 seconds, Grande Premio’s results show. Red Bull’s Isack Hadjar was third, ahead of the Ferraris of Charles Leclerc and Hamilton in fourth and fifth. Russell starts sixth, so he would need a bad afternoon to finish as low as ninth. Hamilton, from fifth, only has to hold position to keep the title fight alive.

Pole matters at the Circuit of the Americas. The AP notes that 11 of the 13 races held there since 2012 were won from the front row, the exceptions being Charles Leclerc from fourth in 2024 and Verstappen from sixth in 2023.

Why this season is so unusual

Antonelli won five of the first six races and is chasing his ninth win of the year. Saturday’s pole was his first since Belgium, seven races ago, and the AP called it a surprise after Verstappen won the previous two races from pole.

If he does it, he will be the youngest champion in F1 history, beating Sebastian Vettel, who was 23 years and 134 days old when he won in 2010. That is a remarkable turn for a driver who only joined Mercedes as Hamilton’s replacement last year.

Our take

The numbers say a title on Sunday is possible but not likely. Russell starting sixth in the same car makes a ninth-place finish hard to imagine without a crash, a penalty or a mechanical failure. The more realistic story is that Antonelli wins, extends his lead and settles it in Mexico or Brazil.

For F1 fans in Pakistan, where the sport has been trending on Google this weekend, it means a late night. Set the alarm for just before 1am, and watch Turn 1: Verstappen alongside him on the front row is the biggest threat to the win he needs.